How
overreaction to Tinyefuza by closing down Daily Monitor and Red Pepper may launch
yet another presidential candidate
Since the
Coordinator of Intelligence Services, Gen. David Sejusa aka Tinyefuza, kicked
off a storm by alleging that there is a plan to have Brig. Muhoozi Keinerugaba
succeed his father President Yoweri Museveni as president of Uganda, government
has been eclectic.
Yet, more
than what Tinyefuza said, it is the response of the government that is
troublesome. It seems the government is determined to make a hero out of
Tinyefuza.
I can confirm
from reliable security sources that a decision has been taken not to arrest
Tinyefuza upon arrival at the airport. The plan is to let him go home and then
summon him for questioning – in order to deny him the prize of being received
with paranoiac tanks at Entebbe.
This seemed
to be a sober decision when I left Kampala for London on Friday. Upon my return
late Monday night, I found the government had shut down The Red Pepper and
Daily Monitor and its affiliate radio stations KFM and Dembe FM. Whoever is
advising the government must must be an ally of Tinyefuza. This action is going
to amplify his allegations to the rest of the world. What had started as a
domestic news story is now going to take a global significance.
Over 90% of
Ugandans do not get news from mainstream newspapers even though those are
catalysts. They get news from social media sites like Facebook and Twitter.
Therefore, if the government’s intention is to stop the spread of allegations
regarding a possible ‘Muhoozi project’, then they are flogging the wrong horse;
Monitor and Red Pepper are very miniscule players.
These
allegations are being debated on social media without any form of restraint.
Indeed, Tinyefuza himself picked these rumors from online sources where they
had been circulating for months.
However, the
closure of Monitor and Red Pepper has deeply damaged the government nationally
and internationally without achieving the objective of undermining the rumors
themselves. Nationally, it has embarrassed President Museveni’s admirers as
they see their leader acting arbitrarily.
Internationally,
it has painted the President as an ageing dictator suppressing freedom of
speech. Worse of all, it has also given Tinyefuza’s allegations greater
credibility than he could have dreamt of. This is because many people may now
begin to see in government paranoia an admission of guilt.
If Museveni
wants Muhoozi to succeed him, then he needs someone to precipitate a debate on
this subject. In many ways therefore, although Tinyefuza is subjectively
anti-Muhoozi Project, he is objectively an ally.
Nothing sells Muhoozi’s presidential
ambitions than a protracted public debate on the matter. Whether the noise on
the Muhoozi project is positive or negative is only of secondary value. Muhoozi
needs publicity of his name across the country as a potential presidential
contender.
At the
beginning of this saga, I tended to underestimate Tinyefuza and overestimate
Museveni. I felt that Tinyefuza had taken too high a risk without much
short-term benefit commensurate to the risk. As a soldier, he could get
politically muzzled and rendered inactive and irrelevant as happened to Brig.
Henry Tumukunde.
Second, I felt that it would have been difficult for him to
find allies inside NRM to openly support his cause as Museveni seems to have
tightened his grip on internal dissent. However, I also knew that he had
touched a raw nerve in Museveni (his family) that was going to rattle the
president in a very bad way thus causing him to overreact. And overreact he
has.
The crackdown
on the media is an unmitigated disaster – less so for the media involved as it
is for the government. People on social media sites were attacking Daily
Monitor accusing it of being timid and cowardly. Now this action has given them
and Red Peppermuch more credibility than any marketing strategy backed by tons
of money could ever have accomplished.
If Tinyefuza
is making wild allegations about a project that does not exist, why act
irrationally to him and the press? The media crackdown will not stop the
debate. Instead, it will make Tinyefuza the most discussed subject in bars, streets,
shops, restaurants, taxis, buses, homes, schools, hospitals and markets.
From November
1999 to October 2000, I witnessed Museveni turn an obscure colonel into a
presidential candidate. Kizza Besigye had authored a document for internal
discussion within NRM where he accused government of corruption, incompetence
and nepotism. It was not the content of the document that sprang Besigye into
prominence but rather government reaction to him.
Museveni then
accused Besigye of using the wrong forum and sought to prosecute him through
the Military Court Martial. For almost a year and until he was retired from the
army, Besigye was frontline news in all media – print and electronic – a factor
that he used as a springboard to declare his presidential ambitions.
After the
2001 elections, Besigye was forced into exile. But on realizing that this would
improve his political career, he returned to contest for the presidency in
2005/06 elections. Museveni reacted by arresting Besigye and charging him with
“rape” and “treason” in the high court and “terrorism” in the military court
martial.
In one blow
Museveni created the greatest political momentum of any candidacy Uganda had
witnessed. It was because of sheer dint of political tenacity and a high doze
of rigging that Museveni survived Besigye’s onslaught in 2006.
In 2011,
Museveni ignored Besigye and focused largely on his own campaign. In that
simple act of civility, he sucked air out of Besigye’s balloon. Where in 2006 a
newspaper without Besigye in the headline could not sell, in 2011 a Besigye
headline would get 50% returns.
The lesson
for me is simple but powerful: in present day Uganda, the best way for
government to kill the political attractiveness of a candidate running for
office or a politician seeking to build a brand is to ignore them. This is
exactly what I thought government would do with Tinyefuza – and how wrong I
was. Now Tinyefuza is on the roll.
amwenda@independent.co.ug
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