The mayor has
consistently opposed and obstructed every effort to reform the city and thereby
rendered himself irrelevant
Finally, the NRM
has found a way to get rid of Kampala Mayor Erias Lukwago, a man who has been a
thorn in their feet. A commission of inquiry chaired by a high court judge
found him guilty of abuse of office, gross misconduct and incompetentence –
what a way to humiliate an opponent.
In many ways,
most supporters of Lukwago (who are equally President Yoweri Museveni’s
strongest opponents) do not see how the mayor and the president share a common
approach to politics and management.
For Museveni,
almost every decision he takes is based largely on the calculation of its
ability to help him retain power. So, if there is a chance for Museveni to do
something good for the country but which threatens his job as president, he will
not do it. I am aware this behavior is the stuff that all politicians are made
of – even in such democracies are Norway and Sweden.
However, it
seems to me that Museveni has taken political expedience to the extreme end of
what you find especially in the US. This has led to the growth of the impunity
of special interests. At the top level, Museveni has tolerated corrupt
politicians and civil servants who indulge in open theft of public resources
when such people possess political value i.e. they deliver votes from their
ethnic or religious constituencies. He has allowed and often aided rich
businessmen who contribute to his campaigns to take public land, build in road
reserves or the city’s green areas.
This impunity of
the upper class has gone hand in hand with the impunity of the lower classes
that are powerful numerically (in terms of votes). For example, attempts to
clamp down on boda boda riders and subject them to the traffic laws have been
resisted by Museveni.
Market vendors
and hawkers who litter the city have always been protected and defended by
Museveni. Poor people in the countryside; who encroach on game parks, wetlands
and forest reserves, are aided and given police protection by Museveni.
These decisions
calculated to win the president favor with such popular constituencies at the
local level (whether it is a city, a district or even a sub county) have had
dangerous consequences at the national level. They have promoted corruption at
the top and impunity at the bottom.
This has led to
institutionalized corruption and incompetence in government hence and the
breakdown of public goods and services. It has also destroyed the environment
from below so much so that Uganda is loosing forest cover at a rate of 2
percent per year.
Subjectively,
Lukwago and Museveni may be opponents but objectively they stand for the same
political principles, or lack of them. Lukwago’electoral base is made up of
vendors, hawkers, taxi drivers, boda boda riders, idlers, pick pockets,
unemployed youths, etc.
Because they
constitute numbers, Lukwago’s war against KCCA Executive Director Jennifer
Musisi is to resist every reform that may hurt these groups even if it improved
the city generally. In pursuit of this, Lukwago has sought various excuses -
some of them convincing, most of them empty - to fight Musisi instead of
working with her.
Since she came
to office, Musisi has done what had evaded the city for decades. With
increasing resistance from elected councilors who were profiting from the
dysfunctions in Kampala, she is filling potholes, building pedestrian
sidewalks, planting trees, retrieving green areas, etc.
On my NTV show
last week, I made a miscalculation arguing that Lukwago will not be re-elected.
On second reflection, Lukwago has a political strategy. By positioning himself
as the defender of those groups being clamped down by Musisi’s reforms, he is
buying himself political favor for the next election.
In spite of
weaknesses in her administration, Musisi has done for Kampala a great job.
Initially, I had feared Museveni’s support for her would not last the rough
waters of political maneuvering. Surprisingly, the president seems to have
remained supportive.
However, as we
move to 2015, Museveni’s support for Musisi’s reforms will begin to wane and
the city may degenerate into the garbage heap it has always been. For now, most
reasonable people appreciate the work Musisi is doing in spite of constant
obstruction from a mayor determined to serve only one interest – how to be
re-elected.
All reform
creates losers and winners. The costs of reform are felt immediately, so they
are certain. This allows the losers to overcome what economists call
“collective action” problems. So they become militants determined to resist
reform.
The challenge is
that the benefits of reform come at a later date, so they are uncertain. This
makes support for reform lukewarm and tentative at best or absent at worst. In
the contest between those who stand in defense of reform and those opposing it,
the opponents punch above their numerical strength because they can easily
unite around their interests.
Secondly, a good
reformer has to sequence her/his reforms. If you attempt to reform everything
all at the same time, there will be too many toes you will be stepping on. This
may mobilize broad-based resistance to reform.
A good tactician
will therefore ally with one group against another to achieve a specific
reform. For example, you may ally with shopkeepers against hawkers and vendors.
Once you are done with them, you can ally with consumers against shopkeepers.
Today’s allies can be tomorrow’s adversaries.
If Musisi begun
reform with boda bodas, vendors, hawkers and taxi drivers, it is because she
can only inconvenience them when Uganda is far away from an election year. The
closer we get to 2015, the less possible it will be to tackle them. Hence 2015
and 2016 can be the years to tackle the rich business barons, for then one can
politically whip up the sentiments of the poor against the rich.
By defending the
parochial interests of his constituents against a meaningful reform of the
city, Lukwago has shown that he places his personal interest to remain mayor
above the collective good of the city. To this extent, he and Museveni are
birds of a feather that fly apart.
amwenda@independent.co.ug
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