Why obsession with presidential term
limits in Africa is a secular gospel based on faith than historic facts
US President Barack Obama excited a
section of Africa’s elite when he denounced African leaders who rule for very
long, some even dying in office. This seems common sense. But how long is long?
The ancient Romans thought a year was long enough. When in 509 BC they
abolished monarchy and established a republic, they created a senate that would
elect two councils (later tribunes) who would serve a one-year non-renewable
term. When in 132 BC Tiberius Gracchus attempted to violate this rule and run
for a second term, senators led by Scipio Nasica accused him of trying to
become king. They attacked him wielding clubs in the Forum and killed him. So
by the standards of the ancient republican Rome, Obama’s eight years is a very
long time for a leader to be in power.
This system had served the republic
through external attack and internal rebellion for almost 400 years. But as
Rome’s economy transformed from village tillage to urban industry, and as its
realm spread from the Italian peninsular to cover most of Southern and Central
Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, the system began to falter. Beginning
with the murder of Tiberius, Rome was consumed by never ending civil wars until
the Republic ended when Octavian was declared princeps (effectively emperor) in
27BC.
The founding fathers of America in
establishing the republic copied their constitutional design from Republican
Rome. Like the ancient Romans, they had overthrown a monarch. In the initial
Articles of Confederation, Congress would elect a president who would serve a
non-renewable term of one year. But after sevens years, the Americans realized
that this formula was not suited to their circumstances. In 1789 they wrote a
new constitution creating a president elected by Electoral College to serve
four-year terms. It was not until 1951 (162 years later) that America established
term limits. Lesson: nations should not be very rigid with their constitutions.
Instead they should be open-minded on amending them to fit their circumstances.
Coming to Africa, term limits
although echoed by Obama is not a foreign imposition but an endogenous demand.
Many Africans believe that leaders should serve two five year terms and retire,
giving others a chance at leadership. This demand is both reasonable and
self-evident for republican government. Regular change of government gives a
country an opportunity to test the different leaders. The problem of course is
that all too often, we hold this principle as a religious creed than a
political objective.
There is an assumption that
longevity of leaders in Africa is a cause of instability. But is this really
true? The laboratory of politics is history. If we look the nations of Africa
with the most stable democracies, they are the ones that had preceding
presidents that ruled for very long: Zambia (Kenneth Kaunda, 27 years), Malawi
(Kamuzu Banda, 30), Tanzania (Julius Nyerere, 24), Ghana (Jerry Rawlings, 18),
Kenya (Daniel arap Moi, 24), Benin (Mathieu Kerekou, 19 plus 10), Botswana
(Katumile Matsire, 17) and Senegal (Abdou Diof, 20).
Even those who ruled till death
contradict Obama’s doomsday prediction. The most successful democracy in Africa
is Botswana. Its first president, Sir Tseretse Khama, died in office after 14
years in power. Kenya’s founding president, Jomo Kenyatta, ruled for 15 years
and died in office. In Mozambique, Samora Machel died in office after 12 years
in power, there was a peaceful transition leading to term limits and a stable
democracy. Recently in Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi died in office after 23 years in
power and left the most successful economy on our continent – and a peaceful
transition.
In Ivory Coast, Felix Boigny ruled
for 33 years, died in office paving away to a peaceful transition. Under the
successor multiparty democratic government the country succumbed to a coup,
then civil war and near collapse. In Togo and Gabon, Presidents Nansiggbe
Eyadema and Omar Bongo ruled for 38 and 41 years respectively, died in office
and bequeathed peaceful transitions to their sons. Ahmed Ahidjo served Cameroun
for 22 years and retired peacefully and handed over power to Paul Biya who has
ruled for 33 years now.
In Mali, Moussa Traore ruled for 23
years and was overthrown in a military coup. The coup leader, Gen. Amadou
Toumani ruled for one year and handed over power, to a democratic government
with term limits. But this experiment collapsed in 2012 with a coup. Today, the
country is held together by French troops.
Indeed, let us look at presidents in
Africa who did “the right thing” i.e. took power and kept their promise to rule
for a short time and transfer power to a democratically elected multiparty
government. All in cases, the experiment backfired. Brig. Akwasi Afrifa in
Ghana ruled for one year in 1968-69 and returned power to civilian rule. Within
three years the multiparty democracy succumbed to a coup followed by prolonged
instability.
Jerry Rawlings ruled for six months
in 1978-79 and handed over power to a civilian multi party government. The
experiment lasted two years and ended in another coup led by him. It is after
he gave Ghana a long reign of 18 years that he bequeathed it its current
stability and democracy. Olusegun Obasanjo ruled Nigeria for four years and
returned power to a multiparty civilian government in 1979 that collapsed in
1983. Brig. Mada Bio of Sierra Leone ruled for one year in 1995 and returned
power to multiparty civilian rule. This precipitated another coup, civil war
worsened and the state collapsed.
In fact, most nations of Africa that
have been unstable are those that did not have a founding president who served
for very long – Ghana, Uganda, Congo DRC, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Chad, CAR,
Nigeria, Chad, Burundi, Rwanda, Sudan, etc. Indeed the first president in post
independence Africa to do “the right thing” and relinquish power peacefully
after electoral defeat was Osman Daar in Somalia in 1967 – he had served seven
years. Two years later Somalia had a coup, then civil war and the current
dismemberment of the country. Liberia had 17 peaceful transfers of power from
1848 when it was established and 1980 when Sgt. Samuel Doe staged a coup i.e.
each president serving an average of six years. From then the country
degenerated into civil war, state and economic collapse.
In Sierra Leone, President Siaka
Stevens retired peacefully in 1985 after serving 16 years. Within seven years,
civil war, military coups and counter coups turned the country into a failed
state that was only rescued by British troops. Uganda had its experiment in
peaceful democratic change of government. On June 19th, 1979 a vote
of no confidence in President Yusuf Lule was passed by parliament. When the
results were announced, the Speaker, Edward Rugumayo, turned to the stone-faced
Lule and told him: “you are no longer president of Uganda.” After that, the
country succumbed to military coups, civil war and near collapse.
There are presidents who ruled for
long and their countries unraveled –Siad Barre in Somalia (22 years), emperor
Haile Selasi in Ethiopia (45 years), Juvenal Habyarimana in Rwanda (20 years)
and Mobutu in Congo/Zaire (32 years). It is not clear whether Congo/Zaire would
have been more stable if its presidents had served a short time. There are many
inconsistencies among these countries – and it is hard to see one clear pattern
that ensured stability and peaceful transitions to stable democracies. Each
country’s development seems to have been shaped by its unique circumstances.
If you are open-minded, this brief
history is a moment to pause and reflect. We see that serving for a short time
and peacefully handing over power did not guarantee stability. In most cases,
it precipitated coups and civil war. Second, there are very few cases where a
long serving president bequeathed instability. In most cases they delivered
peaceful transitions leading to stable democracies.
These facts contradict our secular
gospel that condemns those of our leaders who served long. In fact they teach
us that longevity and term limits are not mutually contradictory – one seems to
lay a foundation for the other. Therefore the real issue facing Africa is not
the length of time a president serves but how he/she organizes politics.
Secondly, the worst mistake would be to treat all our countries as the same and
prescribe one solution for all of them.
No comments:
Post a Comment