Why our frustration should'nt lead
us to behave like a drowning man who clings onto a crocodile
And so it was that on the night of
August 30, NTV treated us to a debate between Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)
contenders for party presidential flag bearer, Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu and Col.
Dr. Kizza Besigye. The fact that there is contestation for the leadership of
FDC is a breath of fresh air compared to the NRM’s sole candidature syndrome.
I wonder why NRM does not concoct
some semblance of competition within the party just to pretend to be
democratic.
By allowing internal contestations,
FDC (perhaps because it is not in power) exhibits a more democratic character.
In spite of its poor preparation, the debate itself was symbolically important
to our illusions of progress towards democratic politics. Even though my
preferred candidate is Muntu (because of his values), I think the best choice
for the opposition is Besigye (because of his electability). Besigye made this
point. For all his noble qualities, Muntu fails to generate the enthusiasm
among opposition supporters that Besigye does.
The choice facing FDC is therefore stark: should Besigye keep his word and not run for the presidency and the campaign loses momentum? Or should he breach his promise but bring enthusiasm back to the opposition campaign. From a purely idealistic view, Besigye should not run and should instead campaign for Muntu. But for real politic, FDC needs Besigye. Here I disagree with Muntu when he said that the votes Besigye got were anti-President Yoweri Museveni votes and will automatically go to any opposition candidate.
Without Besigye in the race, there
is likely to be little enthusiasm among opposition supporters. Consequently,
voter turnout will nose-dive and give Museveni an advantage. However, Besigye
is as much a liability as an asset to the FDC. For instance, although he is
able to rally the base, he does not grow his appeal. The salvation for the
opposition, therefore, is to have both Besigye and former premier Amama Mbabazi
in the race. This is because Mbabazi can eat into Museveni’s vote and appeal to
many independents uncomfortable with Besigye.
Now back to the debate: it was
frustrating but illuminating. Frustrating because neither candidate made any
serious case on why he is the best candidate to lead the party in next year’s
presidential election. It was illuminating because Besigye and Muntu’s failure
to articulate an alternative vision to Museveni underlines a major weakness in
our electoral politics. Pointing out the failures of the incumbent is important
but not enough to justify one’s candidature. I left the debate knowing what
Muntu and Besigye are against, but I could not explain what they stand for.
Besigye rumbled on about defeating a
dictatorship, complained about “the mass poverty Ugandans have been reduced to”
and the problem on joblessness. We can criticise Museveni for one million
weaknesses but one cannot say that poverty has increased during his presidency.
All studies and anecdotal evidence would show that overall poverty has
consistently declined and the quality of life improved. It is true Uganda has a
serious employment problem, especially among the youths. But Besigye made no
effort to explain how he would create jobs.
Besigye also claimed that Uganda’s
roads are in shambles. Yet since 2008, the tarmac road network of Uganda has
increased from when only 800km were in good condition to 4,100km today.
Currently there are 1,900km of tarmac under construction and another 1,000km to
commence this financial year. Indeed the budget for roads now tops all others
at Shs3.3 trillion (18.2% of the budget). Therefore, the tarmac road network of
Uganda is projected to reach 5,500km by end of next year when some of the
on-going projects are complete – giving Uganda 50% of Kenya’s tarmac roads yet
it has a quarter of that nation’s budget. Contrary to the corruption
doomsayers, the cost of constructing a kilometre of road in Uganda has reduced
from US$1.5 million to US$ 800,000 in seven years.
Besigye also said he needs to trim
government, a very ideological platitude he seems to have picked from his UK
Conservative Party funders. What is the size of Uganda’s public sector? It is
320,000. What is the necessary level of government employees per 100 citizens?
The Sub Sahara Africa average is 1.9 public sector employees per 100 citizens;
Latin America is 3.5, Middle East and North Africa is 4.0 and Asia Pacific is
2.4. Uganda is 1.09. What is the reasonable ratio of wages to GDP? It should
not exceed 7%. Ghana’s today is 11.3%, Kenya 12.2% and Uganda is 3.86%. What is
the reasonable ratio of total government wages to revenue? It should not exceed
30%. Uganda’s is 25.4%. In Ghana it is 41.2%, Kenya is 55% and Ivory Coast is
45.5%. I can go on with indicators that Uganda has a leaner state. So why does
Besigye want to trim it?
Muntu, the noblest person I know in
Uganda, made no policy recommendation. The entire basis of his candidature
seemed what Museveni has failed to do, not what Muntu can do. I understand
there are a lot of frustrations with Museveni’s administration and I share many
of them. I also understand that those frustrated with the failures of the
Museveni administration are looking for an alternative to him. But the fatal
error is to embrace everyone who shouts wolf at the Museveni scare crow; for
then we act like a drowning man clinging on to a crocodile. And from what I saw
in their debate, both Besigye and Muntu clearly held onto a crocodile in 1981
when they joined Museveni in the bush to fight the government of Milton Obote.
Besigye and Muntu, however
well-intentioned they may be, are politicians contesting for power. Power has
its own dynamics and it will corrupt them as it has corrupted Museveni. The
real change for Uganda will not come from worshiping them as saviours but in
taking them to task to explain what they plan to do. They cannot merely promise
jobs. They need to give concrete and well informed proposals on how to achieve
their promises. The men I listened to on Sunday night had little clue of what
government is already doing on which they are supposed to build – its budget,
its plans etc. They were involved in guesswork. That cannot be a basis for good
leadership.
No comments:
Post a Comment