Why Besigye’s promise to cut down
the number of political appointments in government is a pipedream
Opposition presidential candidate,
Kizza Besigye has promised a 50% increase in public sector wages. According to
his handlers, he will save money by cutting wasteful spending on political
appointments like RDCs, on the second largest cabinet in the world, and on the
114 presidential advisors and assistants President Yoweri Museveni has. He also
plans to reduce the number of districts and the size of parliament.
Besigye’s heart is clearly in the
right direction but I am inclined to believe that he will not do any of that.
In fact he is deluded if he thinks
he will save money this way and use it to pay for his oversized promises. I
will do the math of how ridiculous his expectations are in another article.
For now I will explain why Besigye
will not cut the budget allocated to political patronage if he were to win next
year’s elections.
Mainly, this will be because Besigye
will be under pressure to appoint many people to cabinet to build a governing
coalition.
He will also need to reward his many
political hangers-on for their support. If he cuts these political jobs, he
will find that he has tied his hands and will be forced to recreate them under
new guises. To appreciate this, we must leave dreamland and delve into Uganda’s
actual politics.
It is very unlikely that Besigye can
win next year’s election in the first round – if he has any chance of victory
at all. However, defeating Museveni in a second round will require him to build
a broad coalition with all other opposition political forces. And some powerful
personages from NRM may cross to his side. The most appealing offer he can give
them is opportunities to sit in cabinet. Add that to pressure for posts from
his FDC and a host of other opposition politicians who supported him.
If Besigye is president, he will
need a vice president from the East, a speaker from Central and a deputy
speaker from the North. But then what will he give Amama Mbabazi and other
powerful allies like Ssemogerere Mulwanyamuli, Norbert Mao, Olara Otunnu, Beti
Kamya or Cecilia Ogwal? And this is before we talk of his powerful FDC
colleagues like Amanya Mushega, Wafula Oguttu, Ogenga Latigo and Mugisha Muntu.
These challenges will force Besigye to keep the slot of prime minister and
three deputies.
With cabinet, I do not see how
Besigye will ignore Nandala Mafabi, Abdu Katuntu, Augustine Ruzindana, Ingrid
Turinawe, Jack Sabiiti, Waswa Birigwa, Geoffrey Ekanya, Salaam Musumba, Ibrahim
Ssemujju, Joyce Sebugwawo, Miria Matembe, John Kazoora and Kasiano Wadri. And
if Besigye has a cabinet of only 20 ministers, where will he put all the other
powerful personages in FDC and other political parties? I have a list of 60
opposition politicians whom Besigye will find it difficult to keep out of his
cabinet.
Thus Besigye will find himself under
pressure to have a large cabinet or leave behind many bruised egos, grumbling,
and recriminations. This is not a way to build a winning coalition for a second
term.
Besigye could be willing to lose a
second term in defense of the principle of lean government. But if maintaining
such a principle causes him to lose a second term, the lesson to his successor
will be clear: have a large cabinet. It makes no sense for Besigye to implement
a reform that will not survive him.
But it gets worse. During the last
15 years of his struggle, Besigye has relied on the support of hordes of school
dropouts without any formal qualifications and graduates who have not been
employed for many years. These men and women have braved police brutality, been
beaten and teargased. But they have remained loyal and determined. They have
walked for miles without food or water to support him at rallies, endured
intimidation and harassment to guard his vote at poling stations etc. And they
number in tens of thousands. What will President Besigye tell them after he is
sworn-in?
Let us also remember that these
Besigye supporters have witnessed their colleagues who have served Museveni buy
fancy cars, build nice homes, send their children to good private schools and
turn out on weekends with finely tuned families. They look at these NRM
luminaries with anger but also with envy. Once Besigye comes to power, many of
his supporters will also want to live similar lifestyles. They did not
sacrifice for Besigye so that once he gains power they go home and remain in
their poverty. They will want jobs, good jobs. But who will hire them? The
private sector is expanding but it has no jobs for hangers-on. And it takes
time to attract private investments that can create tens of thousands of jobs.
The only way Besigye can address the
legitimate and genuine aspirations of his team across the different districts
of Uganda is through public sector jobs. But his supporters, campaign managers,
polling agents etc. lack qualifications or experience. If he creates a
meritocracy, his supporters may be defeated by the more experienced and
qualified NRM cadres in competitive interviews. Will Besigye accept to create a
system that rewards his rivals?
Therefore, in promising to abolish
jobs that are at the discretion of the president like RDCs, presidential
advisors and assistants, security operatives etc., Besigye is cutting the hand
supposed to feed his political machine. I do not think the tens of thousands of
FDC and other opposition supporters who will have helped President Besigye come
to power will accept such a sacrifice. Besides, President Besigye will be
asking them to sacrifice as they see him fly the presidential jet, live in
State House and drive in a convoy.
The point I am making is that
political reality is very different from campaign idealism. When I was young
and passionate, I thought political decisions were made on moral grounds for
the good of everyone. But I have grown older and reflective. A lot of the
“mistakes” we see made by our political leaders are rarely stupid. Often times
they are forced on them by circumstances. Even with the best intentions,
Besigye, like Museveni, will find himself compromised by reality. Yet his
supporters, like Museveni’s supporters in 1986, think Besigye will effect a
“fundamental change” in the politics of Uganda. They must be told that
Besigye’s hand will be tied by political reality, his decisions influenced by
political calculations, and his campaign promises not kept.
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