Inside the struggle by Rwandans to
get their president to run again in 2017
And so it was that on December 6, I
was present at a Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) meeting to discuss the “third
term”. Attended by over 3,000 party delegates, members wanted President Paul
Kagame to pronounce himself – there and then – that he would be the
presidential candidate of the RPF in the 2017 elections once the constitution
is amended to remove term limits on the presidency. The meeting was charged.
Delegate after delegate spoke with passion on why Kagame should be their
presidential candidate.
From the way delegates spoke, it was
clear that there was suspicion that Kagame would refuse their request. And the
president was absent from the meeting attending to the visiting Ethiopian Prime
Minister to listen to their pleas. So delegates directed their energy to the
First Lady, Mrs. Jeannette Kagame, asking her to tell her husband not turndown
the request to run. So intense were the demands on Jeannette that she declared
she was attending the meeting as an ordinary party member, not as a First Lady.
Senior party leaders found
themselves at pains to explain to the junior party members that the president
will not turn down their request. “I have known this president for a long
time,” an old man told the attentive delegates, “I can assure you he cannot
ignore the pleas of Rwandans.” After explaining the personality of Kagame, he
said: “So don’t be worried and agitated. He will say yes.” The highly respected
Tito Rutaremera also joined those calling on delegates to be calm and be
assured the president will accept their request to run as their presidential
candidate in 2017. “He cannot ignore the cries of his people,” Rutaremera
belabored.
For two years since the demands for
amending the constitution to remove term limits began, the Rwandan president
has not spoken clearly on the matter. The last time he spoke, he said he is not
looking for a third term. What the president meant is that he has not asked
anyone to canvas for a third term on his behalf. Therefore there was genuine
reason for the delegates to suspect Kagame would refuse. Didn’t he do exactly
that in 1994? After RPF took power in that year, everyone wanted Kagame to be
president. And they took it for granted he would accept. He refused. For almost
ten days neither side could budge: RPF wanted Kagame as president, Kagame
insisted he did not want the job. Then Prime Minister designate, Faustin
Twagiramungu, led a delegation of all the other political parties to plead with
Kagame to accept to be president and he refused.
Finally a compromise was struck.
Kagame would suggest someone he felt should become president and present him to
the RPF for election. He proposed Pasteur Bizimungu. However, RPF and other
political parties would accept this if Kagame agreed to become vice president
and minister of defense. He agreed. It is rare in human history for a
successful rebel leader of an armed struggle to insist on his political party
crowning someone else as president. It is also a decision that caused a lot of
friction in Rwanda and its consequences still hang heavily on Kagame’s
conscience.
The Rwandan president is now acutely
aware that the wisdom of multitudes of Rwandans is as important – or even more
important – than his own. He can longer afford to disregard popular opinion as
he did in 1994. So when he finally came to speak, he did not want to disappoint
RPF delegates. But he also did not want to be stampeded into making a decision
prematurely. In his speech, Kagame reminded the delegates that there is a
constitutional amendment process that has been on going. The sticking issue is
to remove term limits to allow him to contest again in 2017. But instead of
asking him to make a decision now, he reasoned, they should wait until the
process is concluded. And the crowning event of this process is a referendum on
the issue. It is here that Kagame put his clincher.
“We need to ask ourselves, is our
decision the right one?” he said as everyone listened attentively, “When
Rwandans go to the referendum, they will be going to show their position, their
worries and concerns about the country. Now they have not yet been given an
opportunity to express themselves. What you expect from me, you thought you would
get it today; no you cannot. We have to go through the process. If there is a
referendum and only 55% say amend the constitution, I would not accept.”
Knowing Kagame, I do not think he
will accept to run for president in 2017 if anything less than 90% favors him
running again. The good news is that this is such as easy number for the pro
third term advocates. Across that tiny country, a vast grassroots movement has
been underway to petition the president to run again. It is a desire shared by
the ruling party and other political parties alike – except for a small
percentage of malcontents.
It is rare for any country to have
such unanimity of opinion on what elsewhere would have been a contentious
political issue. I therefore understand why many outsiders and skeptics think
all this outpouring of support for Kagame to run for president in 2017 is a
result of political manipulation by the president and his cohorts. If I had not
been intimately involved in Rwandan politics, I would also have thought the
same way. But any person with good knowledge of Rwanda will tell you the
country is united behind its president.
Post genocide Rwanda is really
unique among poor countries in almost every measure. With per capita income at
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of $1,900, Rwanda is among the world’s ten most
efficient governments, according to the respected World Economic Forum. And all
the countries in the top ten have per capita incomes above $60,000 except
Malaysia, which stands at $25,000. With per capita revenue of $107 per year,
Rwanda is the only country in this revenue bracket where government legitimacy
depends to a large degree on the ability of the state to deliver public goods
and services to ordinary people.
Outsiders may not understand this
but their attempts to give summons on how Rwandans should govern themselves are
increasing the passions of those who want Kagame to stay. The vast majority of
Rwandans don’t want their president to cave in to external pressure. If there
is a last push on Kagame to stay, it is the hubris of certain powers in our
world.
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