About me.

Andrew M. Mwenda is the founding Managing Editor of The Independent, Uganda’s premier current affairs newsmagazine. One of Foreign Policy magazine 's top 100 Global Thinkers, TED Speaker and Foreign aid Critic



Monday, August 8, 2016

Uganda’s much-discussed bailout



How to help distressed companies without removing the risk from lenders and borrowers
On March 31 2016, the total value of all loans in Uganda’s commercial banking industry was Shs21.7 trillion of which Shs528 billion were non-performing loans (or “bad loans”) i.e. 2.64% of the total. Under the effective oversight of Bank of Uganda, especially its director for supervision; Justine Bagyenda (known in the industry as Uganda’s Iron Lady), non-performing loans have averaged 1.7% over the last 10 years. Although there was deterioration, it was a far cry from the 17% non-performing loans in 1996.

However, in just three months, nonperforming loans jumped three-fold to Shs1.8 trillion by June 30, 2016 representing 8.4% of total loans, an unheard of thing in nearly 20 years. What has caused this sudden deterioration?

It certainly cannot be bad borrowers and reckless lenders but something troubling about our economy generally. It is thus justified to fear the situation could worsen with bad loans reaching Shs7.0 trillion (30% of total loans) by December. This fear can be contested but for policy makers it is always safe to plan for the worst even when hoping for the best.


Most commentators have denounced the proposed bailout as a scheme to line the pockets of incompetent businesspersons, reckless banks, and “regime cronies”. But let us look at the facts for some perspective.

Of the Shs528 billion in non-performing loans, Shs126 billion (24%) is a result of government not paying domestic arrears to its suppliers. Diversion of funds to speculative businesses is only Shs2.6 billion (0.49%). See Table 1. Almost 30% of these loans went to building and construction (Shs155 billion), 29% to agriculture (Shs151 billion), 24% to trade and commerce (Shs127 billion) while only 1.4% (Shs7.4 billion) went to personal household stuff. See table 3.

So Uganda is caught in a Catch-22 situation. If it intervenes to help distressed companies or over-leveraged banks, it will create the problem of moral hazard. For example, out of Shs21.7 trillion in loans, only Shs1.8 trillion is non-performing. If the problem is system-wide, how come Shs19.9 trillion of loans are still performing?

But the threefold growth in bad loans since April means that it is highly likely many good loans could go bad. Yet helping distressed companies means rewarding failure and penalising those servicing their loans. And in helping the 8.4% who are distressed, you could be encouraging many in the 91.6% who are doing well to become lax and default in anticipation of a similar bailout.

Moral hazard is a core belief among free market ideologues and a real risk in such government interventions. Moralists seeking social equity would also reject any bailout. But ideological dogmatism and moral outrage are rarely a basis for sound public policy.

I was re-watching a documentary on the 2008 financial crash in America. Secretary to the Treasury, Hank Paulsen, made the same ideological mistake in regard to Leman Brothers, a US investment bank, and refused to bail it out with only about $50 billion and let it go bankrupt. But this caused shock on the stock market leading to the near collapse of the rest of the banking sector.
Eventually, the US government had to fork out $700billion to bailout banks infected by Leman’s collapse and $800 billion as a stimulus package to recover from the ensuing recession.

If Uganda has to intervene to help distressed companies, it must be driven by the desire to avoid contagion. The failure of some of the distressed companies can lead to the failure of banks with worse consequences than the costs of a bailout.
Secondly, an economy is a circular flow of income: one person’s expenditure is another person’s income. Distressed companies must have suppliers who depend on them for business. If they go under, this may impact the ability of their suppliers to service their own loans as well.

In Uganda’s case, it may be advisable to work with the central bank to relax prudential rules, based on a government guarantee. The aim would be to help commercial banks and their customers to restructure loans in a more comprehensive way than is right now allowed by the Financial Institutions Act. The loan maturity period could be lengthened and interest costs reduced. This will keep commercial banks’ balance sheets healthy without taking away the responsibility and pressure on them to collect the debt and the risk of failing to do so.

Companies that are facing a short-term liquidity squeeze due to factors such as conflict in South Sudan, delayed payment from government, price volatility, customers who have failed to pay, low sales, termination of business contracts, breakdown of key equipment, fraud and poor management can restructure, improve themselves and pay back. Those that are uncompetitive or undisciplined will go under. That is why government should not cherry pick whom to help and whom not to. Any government committee mandated to set criteria for a bailout will become a theatre of influence peddling and corruption leading to acrimony and political contestation.

The problem facing banks right now, as stated by Uganda’s leading tycoon and owner of Crane Bank, Sudir Ruparelia, is that half of Kampala is on sale. If banks offload all collateral on the market, there will be a collapse of the real estate market. This is in large part because those in the best position to buy real estate are also the ones who are distressed. Those that are not distressed are still hedging their bets and are unlikely to put their money into brick and motor given the prevailing economic uncertainty.

I agree real estate prices in (especially) Kampala have been overpriced and there is need to let them come down to reflect actual fundamentals of the economy.
But it would be disastrous to let the housing market collapse totally. This could easily infect practically everyone because real estate is the main collateral banks use to lend. Its collapse will force banks to revalue their collateral and ask borrowers to find more security or recall the loans, a factor that will cause many more loans to go bad.

Relaxing a strict enforcement of prudential rules by the central bank means that government will not spend any taxpayer money on the bailout. It also means that neither the lenders nor the borrowers have been let off the hook – they will only have been given a short (one to two years) breather. But it has potential to help healthy companies restructure and survive while the weak ones collapse and go out of business. It will also help the central bank dissuade commercial banks from their exaggerated interest rates. The ball is in the central bank’s court.
***
amwenda@independent.co.ug

41 comments:

Makoye said...

Dear Andrew, thanks for this insight. I'm writing a thesis on similar case and wonder if you can grant me audience to discuss more on the issue of bail out in uganda/third world countries in general.

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Hello everyone in this forum, I am Joyce Acklin from 937 Stratford Park Austin, IN, USA and want to use this medium to express gratitude to EMINENT JOSH the C.E.O of EMINENT JOSH LOAN COMPANY for fulfilling his promise by granting me a loan, i was stuck in a financial situation and needed to refinance and pay my bills as well as start up a Business. I tried seeking for loans from various loan firms both private and corporate organisations but never with success, and most banks declined my credit request. But as God would have it, i was introduced by a friend named Dianne Faulkner to EMINENT JOSH LOAN COMPANY whom also confirmed to me that she also obtained a loan from them. In an attempt to resolve my current situation, i got in contact with the company via email/text and undergone the due process of obtaining a loan from the company, to my greatest surprise within 48hrs just like my friend Dianne, i was also granted a loan of $125,000.00; So my advise to everyone who or know someone who desires a loan, "if you must contact any firm with reference to securing a loan online with low interest rate of 2% and better repayment plans/schedule, please contact EMINENT JOSH LOAN COMPANY. Besides, he doesn’t know that am doing this but due to the joy in me, i'm so happy and wish to let people know more about this great company whom truly give out loans, it is my prayer that GOD should bless them more as they put smiles on peoples faces. You can contact them via email on eminentloancompany@yahoo.com CALL/TEXT +1(215)874-8060 or visit their auxiliary webpage on http://www.joshloancompany.bravesites.com/

Nathan MacDonald said...

A BIG THANK YOU EDWARD JONES LOANS {Jonesloanfinance@yahoo.com}

Hi my names are Nathan MacDonald, i was really in financial difficulty which affected my life negatively and my company savings was seriously depleted and we needed help but no one could help us out even the company direct main bank could not even risk to help us because we were at bottom low. My life was a mess and my wife needed a devious, I almost went mad, then decided to look for one way or the other to revive my company but no one was willing to help until i got to know about a prestigious loan company Edward Jones Loan Finance, whom have helped a lot of aliening company in the past and assisted a lot of individual financial. So i decided to request for help and to my greatest surprise they were just as everybody were talking about. they helped me with my loan with a very low interest rate of 2% and now my life is back to normal and i still got back my wife and kids. Am very thankful with the help of Edward Jones Loan Finance and if you are looking for a way to get a loan for one means or an other , your best choice is Edward Jones Loan Finance and you can contact them via email : {Jonesloanfinance@yahoo.com} or Text +1(307) 241-3712

Bernard Correy said...

Are you an individual businessman or a business organisation that wishes to expand in business ??, we offer financial instrument such as BGs, SBLCs,MTNs, LCs, CDs and others on lease and sales at a rate of 4%+2% of the face value and reasonable conditionfrom a genuine provider. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs as well as in signatory project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication and any other project(s) etc.

With our financial/bank instrument you can establish line of credit with your bank and/or secure loan for your projects in which our bank instrument will serve collateral in your bank to fund your project.

We deliver with time and precision as set forth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable and we work directly with issuing bank lease providers, this instrument can be monetized on your behalf for upto 100% funding. Intermediaries/Consultants/Brokers are welcome to bring their clients and are 100% protected. In complete confidence, we will work together for the benefits of all parties involved.

All relevant business information will be provided upon request.

BROKERS ARE WELCOME & 100% PROTECTED!!!

If Interested kindly contact me via
Email:~ inquiry.firstchoice@gmail.com
Skype ID:contact.firstchoice

serious enquiry only.

Barclays bank plc. said...

Are you in any financial crisis? Do you need a LOAN to refinance your home, or expand your business? Do you need LOAN to settle urgent debts and stay with one lender? Do you need LOAN to pay off your bills? etc. Get your loan from  $2,000 to $150,000,000.00 USD/EURO/POUNDS,  at the rate of 2%.  Money transferred into your account within 3 hours of approval. If you are interested in obtaining a LOAN, do not hesitate to send your request to us via e-mail: Barclaysbank.plc198@gmail.com

Unknown said...

GET FAST SECURED AND UNSECURED LOANS
Do You Need A Business Loan?
Do You Need A Business Loan,Or A Personal Loan,At 1.0% If Yes? Name,Amount,Country,Loan Durations,Phone Mobile:Please, Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@gmail.com , ( PergoCF@qualityservice.com ) , bayport@safrica.com , ( PergoCF@aol.com )


Do you need Financial Assistance?
Do you seek funds to pay off credits and debts?
We give out loan with an Interest rate of 1.00%

Please, contact us for more information: PergoCF@gmail.com
Interested applicants should Contact us via email: bayport@safrica.com
Kindly write us back with the loan information;
- Complete Name:
- Loan amount needed:
- Loan Duration:
- Purpose of loan:
- City / Country:
- Telephone:
- How Did You Hear About Us:

Please, contact us for more information: PergoCF@qualityservice.com
Interested applicants should Contact us via email: bayport@safrica.com
Yours Sincerely,
Mrs. Ceren Kelly
PergoCF@aol.com
We look forward to hear from you ASAP.

Unknown said...

GET FAST SECURED AND UNSECURED LOANS
Do You Need A Business Loan?
Do You Need A Business Loan,Or A Personal Loan,At 1.0% If Yes? Name,Amount,Country,Loan Durations,Phone Mobile:Please, Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@gmail.com , ( PergoCF@qualityservice.com ) , bayport@safrica.com , ( PergoCF@aol.com )


Do you need Financial Assistance?
Do you seek funds to pay off credits and debts?
We give out loan with an Interest rate of 1.00%

Please, contact us for more information: PergoCF@gmail.com
Interested applicants should Contact us via email: bayport@safrica.com
Kindly write us back with the loan information;
- Complete Name:
- Loan amount needed:
- Loan Duration:
- Purpose of loan:
- City / Country:
- Telephone:
- How Did You Hear About Us:

Please, contact us for more information: PergoCF@qualityservice.com
Interested applicants should Contact us via email: bayport@safrica.com
Yours Sincerely,
Mrs. Ceren Kelly
PergoCF@aol.com
We look forward to hear from you ASAP.

Eric financee said...

Do you need loans for project, investment, personal loans, business loans, home loans, student loans, consolidation loans and loans for various project? for those who wish to get a loan from our company should contact us today at ( ericfinancee@gmail.com or ericfinancee@outlook.com ) you can also call +1 936-681-9131 or text for more and get your loan today.

Unknown said...

DO YOU NEED A LOAN TO START A BEFITTING NEW YEAR!!!!!!

Do you seek funds to pay off credits and debts? Do you find yourself in a bit of trouble with unpaid bills and don’t know which way to go or where to turn? What about finding a reputable Debt Consolidation firm that can assist you in reducing monthly installment so that you will have affordable repayment options as well as room to breathe when it comes to the end of the month and bills need to get paid? Adam Fred Loan Company is the answer. Email (Adamfredloanfirm@outlook.com)

**Are you financially squeezed?
**Do you seek funds to pay off credits and debts?
**Do you seek finance to set up your own business?
**Are you in need of private or business loans for various purposes?
**Do you seek loans to carry out large projects?

We offer the following types of loans

*Debt Consolidation Loans *Business Loans *Personal Loans *Home Loans *Car Finance *Commercial Loans *Investments Loans *Debts Consolidation *Business Planning *Commercial Development Finance *Properties Mortgages *Bad credit loans *commercial loans *Start-up- working capital loans *Construction loans *Car loans, *Hotel loans*Student loans

We give you loan with a low interest rate of 2% and loan duration of 1 to 30 years to pay back the loan (secure and unsecured). Do not keep your financial problems to yourself in order for you not to be debt master or financial stress up, which is why you must contact us quickly for a solution to your financial problems. It will be a great joy to us when you are financially stable. Email (Adamfredloanfirm@yahoo.com) or Text or call us on +15017229938 OR +18144768385
Reply

Stephen Roland said...

DEAR APPLICANT,

We offer Affordable loan at 2% interest rate available for local and international borrowers. We are certified,trustworthy, reliable, efficient, Fast and dynamic and a co-operate financier for real estate and any kinds of business financing,we offer the following:* Personal Loans * Student Loan * Business Loans * Consolidation Loan * Combination Loan* *Home Enhancement* Car Loan *Construction Loan e.t.c

Fill the application form below for further information.

Full Name:___________
Sex:________
Age:______
Country:__________
Address___________
State: ________
Tel:______
Occupation: __________
Monthly Income:___________
Loan Amount Needed ($) :__________
Amount in Words:
Loan Duration:__________
Pan Card or Voters Id No:__________

We await your responds

Regards
MR Roland Financial
STEPHENROLAND81@GMAIL.COM

Geoffrey Graham said...

Hello.

Greetings, i'm Hogg Geoffrey Graham from LA, I am very happy to receive a loan from the European part of the world, they gave me a loan to settle my hospital bills, They saved me from loosing my house. this message might be of help to you guys that also need a loan in other not to go the wrong side in your search you have to contact this company Michael Clinton Loans. Via E_mail: michaelclinton273@gmail.com

Regards.

Unknown said...

DO YOU NEED A LOAN TO START A BEFITTING NEW YEAR!!!!!!

Do you seek funds to pay off credits and debts? Do you find yourself in a bit of trouble with unpaid bills and don’t know which way to go or where to turn? What about finding a reputable Debt Consolidation firm that can assist you in reducing monthly installment so that you will have affordable repayment options as well as room to breathe when it comes to the end of the month and bills need to get paid? Adam Fred Loan Company is the answer. Email (Adamfredloanfirm@outlook.com)

**Are you financially squeezed?
**Do you seek funds to pay off credits and debts?
**Do you seek finance to set up your own business?
**Are you in need of private or business loans for various purposes?
**Do you seek loans to carry out large projects?

We offer the following types of loans

*Debt Consolidation Loans *Business Loans *Personal Loans *Home Loans *Car Finance *Commercial Loans *Investments Loans *Debts Consolidation *Business Planning *Commercial Development Finance *Properties Mortgages *Bad credit loans *commercial loans *Start-up- working capital loans *Construction loans *Car loans, *Hotel loans*Student loans

We give you loan with a low interest rate of 2% and loan duration of 1 to 30 years to pay back the loan (secure and unsecured). Do not keep your financial problems to yourself in order for you not to be debt master or financial stress up, which is why you must contact us quickly for a solution to your financial problems. It will be a great joy to us when you are financially stable. Email (Adamfredloanfirm@yahoo.com) or Text or call us on +15017229938 OR +18144768385
Reply

David johnson said...

Good Day Dear Loan Seeker,

Do you need an urgent financial credit ***? * Very fast and direct transfer to your bank account * Repayment starts eight months after you get the money bank account * Low interest rate of 1% * Long-term repayment (1-30 years) Height * Flexible ***then monthly payment *. How long will it be financed? After submitting the application *** You can expect a preliminary answer less than 24 hours funding in 72-96 hours after receiving the information they need yours.

If you are interested contact us via: bdsfn.com@gmail.com and fill out the below loan application form.

Loan application form:
Full Name:....................
Country:.....................
State:..............
City:..............
Sex:.........................
Phone Number:...........
Loan Amount :...........
Monthly income:..........
Occupation:................... ....
Loan Period:....................... ................
Purpose of Loan:......................... ...........
E-mail address:...................... ................
Have You Applied Before?....................

We awaits your urgent application form to be filled ok. Email Us: (bdsfn.com@gmail.com)

With Best Regards.
Mrs. Pranchment Dura
Emaill Address:bdsfn.com@gmail.com

Joyce Acklin said...

A PATH TO FOREVER FINANCIAL FREEDOM FOR EVERYONE

joshloancompany@yahoo.com or CALL/TEXT +1(215)874-8060 Hello everyone in this forum, I am Joyce Acklin from 937 Stratford Park Austin, IN, USA and want to use this medium to express gratitude to EMINENT JOSH the C.E.O of JOSH LOAN COMPANY for fulfilling his promise by granting me a loan, i was stuck in a financial situation and needed to refinance and pay my bills as well as start up a Business. I tried seeking for loans from various loan firms both private and corporate organisations but never with success, and most banks declined my credit request. But as God would have it, i was introduced by a friend named Dianne Faulkner to JOSH LOAN COMPANY whom also confirmed to me that she also obtained a loan from them. In an attempt to resolve my current situation, i got in contact with the company via email/text and undergone the due process of obtaining a loan from the company, to my greatest surprise within 48hrs just like my friend Dianne, i was also granted a loan of $125,000.00; So my advise to everyone who or know someone who desires a loan, "if you must contact any firm with reference to securing a loan online with low interest rate of 2% and better repayment plans/schedule, please contact JOSH LOAN COMPANY. Besides, he doesn’t know that am doing this but due to the joy in me, i'm so happy and wish to let people know more about this great company whom truly give out loans, it is my prayer that GOD should bless them more as they put smiles on peoples faces. You can contact them via email on joshloancompany@yahoo.com CALL/TEXT +1(215)874-8060 or visit their auxiliary webpage on http://www.joshloancompany.bravesites.com/

Trustco Finance said...

We are Providers of all types of BG and SBLC with the best workable procedures. Our BG/SBLC ranges from MT799, MT760,(Both two way confirmation), MT103/23, MT103 (Both can be one way confirmation and two way confirmation) in USD and EUROS. Issuing Bank ranges from Top world 25 banks with face value ranging from 1M EUROS/USD to 5B EUROS/USD

BROKERS ARE WELCOME & 100% PROTECTED!!!
Intermediaries/Consultants/Brokers are welcome to bring their clients and cases to our attention and in complete confidence we will work together for the benefits of all parties involve

For further details contact us with the below information Thank you.

Contact Person: Mr. Tommy Champion
Email: trustco.financeplc@gmail.com
Skype ID: trustco.financeplc

Carson Grant said...

DO YOU NEED A LOAN TO START A BEFITTING NEW YEAR!!!!!!

Are you a business man or woman? Are you in any financial stress? Or do you
need money to start your own business? we offer financial freedom to serious
clients our mission is to help the less financial privileges get back on track
Our program is the quickest way to get what you need in a snap. Reduce your
payments to ease the strain on your monthly expenses. Gain flexibility with which
you can use for any purpose – from vacations, to education, to unique purchases


Do you have a low credit score, and you will find it difficult to get loans
from local banks and other financial institutions? solution to your
financial problem is Dr. Carson Grant The Terms and Conditions are very simple
and considerate.You will never regret any thing in this loan transaction because i will
make you smile through out this transaction, because you where not born to be a loser

Email (carsongrantloanhome@gmail.com) or (info@easyloansint.com)
Website: http://easyloansint.com

Our services include the following:

* Personal Loans
* Debt consolidation loans
* Possibility
* Business Loans
* Education Loans
* Mortgage
*Refinancing Loans
* Home Loans

We offer loans at 2% interest rate


NOTE: You are required to email us on:(carsongrantloanhome@gmail.com) or (info@easyloansint.com) Website: http://easyloansint.com

Geoffrey Graham said...

Hello.Greetings, i'm Hogg Geoffrey Graham from LA, I am very happy to receive a loan from the European part of the world, they gave me a loan to settle my hospital bills, They saved me from loosing my house. this message might be of help to you guys that also need a loan in other not to go the wrong side in your search you have to contact this company Michael Clinton Loans. Via E_mail: michaelclinton273@gmail.com

Regards.

David johnson said...

Good Day Dear Loan Seeker,

Do you need an urgent financial credit ***? * Very fast and direct transfer to your bank account * Repayment starts eight months after you get the money bank account * Low interest rate of 1% * Long-term repayment (1-30 years) Height * Flexible ***then monthly payment *. How long will it be financed? After submitting the application *** You can expect a preliminary answer less than 24 hours funding in 72-96 hours after receiving the information they need yours.

If you are interested contact us via: bdsfn.com@gmail.com and fill out the below loan application form.

Loan application form:
Full Name:....................
Country:.....................
State:..............
City:..............
Sex:.........................
Phone Number:...........
Loan Amount :...........
Monthly income:..........
Occupation:................... ....
Loan Period:....................... ................
Purpose of Loan:......................... ...........
E-mail address:...................... ................
Have You Applied Before?....................

We awaits your urgent application form to be filled ok. Email Us: (bdsfn.com@gmail.com)

With Best Regards.
Mrs. Pranchment Dura
Emaill Address:bdsfn.com@gmail.com

David johnson said...

Good Day Dear Loan Seeker,

Do you need an urgent financial credit ***? * Very fast and direct transfer to your bank account * Repayment starts eight months after you get the money bank account * Low interest rate of 1% * Long-term repayment (1-30 years) Height * Flexible ***then monthly payment *. How long will it be financed? After submitting the application *** You can expect a preliminary answer less than 24 hours funding in 72-96 hours after receiving the information they need yours.

If you are interested contact us via: bdsfn.com@gmail.com and fill out the below loan application form.

Loan application form:
Full Name:....................
Country:.....................
State:..............
City:..............
Sex:.........................
Phone Number:...........
Loan Amount :...........
Monthly income:..........
Occupation:................... ....
Loan Period:....................... ................
Purpose of Loan:......................... ...........
E-mail address:...................... ................
Have You Applied Before?....................

We awaits your urgent application form to be filled ok. Email Us: (bdsfn.com@gmail.com)

With Best Regards.
Mrs. Pranchment Dura
Emaill Address:bdsfn.com@gmail.com

Ronald Rajnesh Gounder said...

I work as a financial consultant for my clients and We have a direct genuine provider for BG/ SBLC specifically for lease, at affordable leasing price of any amount of face value, Issuance by HSBC London/Hong Kong or any other AA rated Bank in Europe, Middle East or USA.
Mr Ronald Rajnesh Gounder
Email: grounesh.advisory1@gmail.com
Skype ID: grouneshadvisory14@gmail.com