About me.

Andrew M. Mwenda is the founding Managing Editor of The Independent, Uganda’s premier current affairs newsmagazine. One of Foreign Policy magazine 's top 100 Global Thinkers, TED Speaker and Foreign aid Critic



Monday, August 8, 2016

Uganda’s much-discussed bailout



How to help distressed companies without removing the risk from lenders and borrowers
On March 31 2016, the total value of all loans in Uganda’s commercial banking industry was Shs21.7 trillion of which Shs528 billion were non-performing loans (or “bad loans”) i.e. 2.64% of the total. Under the effective oversight of Bank of Uganda, especially its director for supervision; Justine Bagyenda (known in the industry as Uganda’s Iron Lady), non-performing loans have averaged 1.7% over the last 10 years. Although there was deterioration, it was a far cry from the 17% non-performing loans in 1996.

However, in just three months, nonperforming loans jumped three-fold to Shs1.8 trillion by June 30, 2016 representing 8.4% of total loans, an unheard of thing in nearly 20 years. What has caused this sudden deterioration?

It certainly cannot be bad borrowers and reckless lenders but something troubling about our economy generally. It is thus justified to fear the situation could worsen with bad loans reaching Shs7.0 trillion (30% of total loans) by December. This fear can be contested but for policy makers it is always safe to plan for the worst even when hoping for the best.


Most commentators have denounced the proposed bailout as a scheme to line the pockets of incompetent businesspersons, reckless banks, and “regime cronies”. But let us look at the facts for some perspective.

Of the Shs528 billion in non-performing loans, Shs126 billion (24%) is a result of government not paying domestic arrears to its suppliers. Diversion of funds to speculative businesses is only Shs2.6 billion (0.49%). See Table 1. Almost 30% of these loans went to building and construction (Shs155 billion), 29% to agriculture (Shs151 billion), 24% to trade and commerce (Shs127 billion) while only 1.4% (Shs7.4 billion) went to personal household stuff. See table 3.

So Uganda is caught in a Catch-22 situation. If it intervenes to help distressed companies or over-leveraged banks, it will create the problem of moral hazard. For example, out of Shs21.7 trillion in loans, only Shs1.8 trillion is non-performing. If the problem is system-wide, how come Shs19.9 trillion of loans are still performing?

But the threefold growth in bad loans since April means that it is highly likely many good loans could go bad. Yet helping distressed companies means rewarding failure and penalising those servicing their loans. And in helping the 8.4% who are distressed, you could be encouraging many in the 91.6% who are doing well to become lax and default in anticipation of a similar bailout.

Moral hazard is a core belief among free market ideologues and a real risk in such government interventions. Moralists seeking social equity would also reject any bailout. But ideological dogmatism and moral outrage are rarely a basis for sound public policy.

I was re-watching a documentary on the 2008 financial crash in America. Secretary to the Treasury, Hank Paulsen, made the same ideological mistake in regard to Leman Brothers, a US investment bank, and refused to bail it out with only about $50 billion and let it go bankrupt. But this caused shock on the stock market leading to the near collapse of the rest of the banking sector.
Eventually, the US government had to fork out $700billion to bailout banks infected by Leman’s collapse and $800 billion as a stimulus package to recover from the ensuing recession.

If Uganda has to intervene to help distressed companies, it must be driven by the desire to avoid contagion. The failure of some of the distressed companies can lead to the failure of banks with worse consequences than the costs of a bailout.
Secondly, an economy is a circular flow of income: one person’s expenditure is another person’s income. Distressed companies must have suppliers who depend on them for business. If they go under, this may impact the ability of their suppliers to service their own loans as well.

In Uganda’s case, it may be advisable to work with the central bank to relax prudential rules, based on a government guarantee. The aim would be to help commercial banks and their customers to restructure loans in a more comprehensive way than is right now allowed by the Financial Institutions Act. The loan maturity period could be lengthened and interest costs reduced. This will keep commercial banks’ balance sheets healthy without taking away the responsibility and pressure on them to collect the debt and the risk of failing to do so.

Companies that are facing a short-term liquidity squeeze due to factors such as conflict in South Sudan, delayed payment from government, price volatility, customers who have failed to pay, low sales, termination of business contracts, breakdown of key equipment, fraud and poor management can restructure, improve themselves and pay back. Those that are uncompetitive or undisciplined will go under. That is why government should not cherry pick whom to help and whom not to. Any government committee mandated to set criteria for a bailout will become a theatre of influence peddling and corruption leading to acrimony and political contestation.

The problem facing banks right now, as stated by Uganda’s leading tycoon and owner of Crane Bank, Sudir Ruparelia, is that half of Kampala is on sale. If banks offload all collateral on the market, there will be a collapse of the real estate market. This is in large part because those in the best position to buy real estate are also the ones who are distressed. Those that are not distressed are still hedging their bets and are unlikely to put their money into brick and motor given the prevailing economic uncertainty.

I agree real estate prices in (especially) Kampala have been overpriced and there is need to let them come down to reflect actual fundamentals of the economy.
But it would be disastrous to let the housing market collapse totally. This could easily infect practically everyone because real estate is the main collateral banks use to lend. Its collapse will force banks to revalue their collateral and ask borrowers to find more security or recall the loans, a factor that will cause many more loans to go bad.

Relaxing a strict enforcement of prudential rules by the central bank means that government will not spend any taxpayer money on the bailout. It also means that neither the lenders nor the borrowers have been let off the hook – they will only have been given a short (one to two years) breather. But it has potential to help healthy companies restructure and survive while the weak ones collapse and go out of business. It will also help the central bank dissuade commercial banks from their exaggerated interest rates. The ball is in the central bank’s court.
***
amwenda@independent.co.ug

15 comments:

Makoye said...

Dear Andrew, thanks for this insight. I'm writing a thesis on similar case and wonder if you can grant me audience to discuss more on the issue of bail out in uganda/third world countries in general.

Dr Purva Pius said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Dr Purva Pius said...

Hello Everybody,
My name is Mrs Sharon Sim. I live in Singapore and i am a happy woman today? and i told my self that any lender that rescue my family from our poor situation, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to him, he gave me happiness to me and my family, i was in need of a loan of S$250,000.00 to start my life all over as i am a single mother with 3 kids I met this honest and GOD fearing man loan lender that help me with a loan of S$250,000.00 SG. Dollar, he is a GOD fearing man, if you are in need of loan and you will pay back the loan please contact him tell him that is Mrs Sharon, that refer you to him. contact Dr Purva Pius,via email:(urgentloan22@gmail.com) Thank you.

BORROWERS APPLICATION DETAILS


1. Name Of Applicant in Full:……..
2. Telephone Numbers:……….
3. Address and Location:…….
4. Amount in request………..
5. Repayment Period:………..
6. Purpose Of Loan………….
7. country…………………
8. phone…………………..
9. occupation………………
10.age/sex…………………
11.Monthly Income…………..
12.Email……………..

Regards.
Managements
Email Kindly Contact: urgentloan22@gmail.com

Financial Loan said...

$$$ GENUINE LOAN WITH LOW INTEREST RATE APPLY $$$
Do you need finance to start up your own business or expand your business, Do you need funds to pay off your debt? We give out loan to interested individuals and company's who are seeking loan with good faith. Are you seriously in need of an urgent loan contact us.

Email: reliableinvestmentcompany99@gmail.com

Mark Smith said...

I am MR VICTOR MICHAEL by name, I live in Australia, who have been a scam victim to so many fake lenders online between February last year till April this year but i thank my creator so much that he has finally smiled on me by directing me to this new lender who put a smile on my face by not scamming me and also by not deceiving or lying to me but however this lender whose name is Mark Smith that gave me a Christmas loan which amount is $ 35,000 united states dollars after my agreement to their company terms and conditions and one significant thing i love about this loan company is its fast service and also its God fearing attitude for not been like other fake lenders online who scammed me before now by asking me to bring fees upon fees without getting the results of all those fees payment that i made to them but all the same , i still give glory to God that my storm is over now and i am now that busy man that i used to be and also my business is now growing here in my country because i now have much capital to do my business properly before the year runs out without having to go and meet my bank for any assistant . Thank you Mark Smith fast loan company for this dream come through and i promise to try all my best to refer your loan company to others who are in need currently just as the way i once was .. thanks you so much over and over again and may God guide you all . here is there email to contact them if you need loan too ..; marksmithfastloan414@gmail.com. phone number; +27611013520. 0r 0611013520. 011611013520

Renee Joan Rothell said...

MARTINEZ LEXIE INVESTMENTS LIMITED HELPED ME OUT OF MY FINANCIAL MESS!!!

I have been in financial mess for the pass 12 months now, I am a single mum with kids to look after. My name is Renee Joan Rothell, and am from Ridley Park, Pennsylvania. A couple of weeks ago My friend visited me and along our discussion she told me about Mr Martinez Lexie of ( Lexieloancompany@yahoo.com ); that he can help me out of my financial situation, I never believed cause I have spend so much money on different loan lenders who did nothing other than running away with my money. She advised I gave it a try because he helped her and some of her colleagues too by granting loans to revive their dying businesses. so I mailed him and explain all about my financial situation and therefore took me through the loan process which was very brief and easy.. After than my loan of 63,000.00 USD was approved and granted to me.. all i did was to follow the processing and be cooperative and today I am a proud business owner sharing the testimony of God-sent Lender. You can as well reach him through the Company website: http://lexieloans.bravesites.com OR text: +18168926958


Renee Joan Rothell said...

MARTINEZ LEXIE INVESTMENTS LIMITED HELPED ME OUT OF MY FINANCIAL MESS!!!

I have been in financial mess for the pass 12 months now, I am a single mum with kids to look after. My name is Renee Joan Rothell, and am from Ridley Park, Pennsylvania. A couple of weeks ago My friend visited me and along our discussion she told me about Mr Martinez Lexie of ( Lexieloancompany@yahoo.com ); that he can help me out of my financial situation, I never believed cause I have spend so much money on different loan lenders who did nothing other than running away with my money. She advised I gave it a try because he helped her and some of her colleagues too by granting loans to revive their dying businesses. so I mailed him and explain all about my financial situation and therefore took me through the loan process which was very brief and easy.. After than my loan of 63,000.00 USD was approved and granted to me.. all i did was to follow the processing and be cooperative and today I am a proud business owner sharing the testimony of God-sent Lender. You can as well reach him through the Company website: http://lexieloans.bravesites.com OR text: +18168926958


David Mark said...


To Whom it may concern!!!

Are you a businessman / woman? Are you in any financial mess or you need
funds to start your own business? or to pay off your bills or start a good
business? Contact us on davidmike756@gmail.com. You can also Text or Call
Our Head Office In United state of america on +19513561932.
required to fill the info :
Name—-
Amunt—-
Duration—-
Phone number—
Country—
Regards,
FROM: DAVID MIKE Loan Company
+19513561932.
davidmike756@gmail.com

jack ballard said...

To get an internet loan is very simple, quick and fast,
you can get a good internet loan in 48 hours,
i got my loan in 48 hours just yesterday here,
internet loan is good when you apply for loan from a good company,
a good company that loves the customers,
a good company that help the borrowers,
if you want to get loan from a good company then contact this email: jackballard396@gmail.com or jackballard396@yahoo.com
i got my loan from them and i am very happy.

contact if you need financial help: jackballard396@gmail.com or jackballard396@yahoo.com

regards

Janice Brown said...

Hello Every One,
My Name is Mrs. Janice Brown , I live in California USA and life is worth living comfortably for me and my family now and i really have never seen goodness shown to me this much in my life as i am a happy mum with a beautiful daughter and i have been going through a serious problem as my husband encountered a terrible accident last two weeks, and the doctors states that he needs to undergo a delicate surgery for him to be able to walk again and i could not afford the bill for his surgery then i went to the bank for a loan and they turn me down stating that i have no credit card, from there i run to my father and he was not able to help, then when i was browsing through yahoo answers and i came across a loan company ADRIAN FINANCE FIRM who provides loans at an affordable interest rate and i have been hearing about so many scams on the Internet but at this my desperate situation, I had no choice than to give it an attempt and surprisingly it was all like a dream, I received a loan of $56,000 USD and i payed for my husband surgery and thank God today he is okay and can walk and he's working and the burden is no longer on me any more. And we can feed well and my family is happy today and i said to my self that i will shout aloud to the world the wonders of God to me through the God fearing loan company and i will advise anyone in genuine and serious need of quick and affordable loan to contact the loan company ADRIAN FINANCE FIRM through their website http://adrianfinancefirm.bravesites.com OR via emails adrianfinancefirm@yahoo.com , adrianfinancefirm@hotmail.com. So you can put a end to your financial crises.

Mrs. Janice Brown.

Emily Thomas said...

EDWARD JONES FINANCE IS THE BEST PLACE TO GET A LOAN {Jonesloanfinance@yahoo.com},
God bless you sir, I will not stop telling the world about your kindness in my life, I am a single mum with kids to look after. My name is Emily Thomas and I am from Convention Center Drive, Miami Beach, FL . A couple of weeks ago My friend visited me and along our discussion she told me about EDWARD JONES FINANCE,that they can help me out of my financial situation, I never believed cause I have spend so much money on different loan lenders who did nothing other than running away with my money. I have been in a financial mess for the pass 7 months now, She advised I give it a try so I mailed him and explain all about my financial situation to him, he therefore took me through the loan process and gave me a loan of $390,000.00 at a very low interest rate of 2% and today I am a proud business owner and can now take good care of my kids, If you must contact any firm to get any amount of loan you need with a low interest rate of 2% and better repayment schedule, please contact EDWARD JONES FINANCE email:- {Jonesloanfinance@yahoo.com} OR Text +1(307) 241-3712

Kate Johnson said...

Hello everyone, my name is Kate Johnson.I was able to back my husband's phone remotely and gained access to all his texts and calls with the help of ghosthacker2351@gmail.com, he is reliable and really fast.I use him whenever I want to be sure about someone.if you require his services tell him I referred you.

Emily Thomas said...

EDWARD JONES FINANCE IS THE BEST PLACE TO GET A LOAN {Jonesloanfinance@yahoo.com} OR Text +1(307) 241-3712,
God bless you sir, I will not stop telling the world about your kindness in my life, I am a single mum with kids to look after. My name is Emily Thomas and I am from Convention Center Drive, Miami Beach, FL . A couple of weeks ago My friend visited me and along our discussion she told me about EDWARD JONES FINANCE, that they can help me out of my financial situation, I never believed cause I have spend so much money on different loan lenders who did nothing other than running away with my money. I have been in a financial mess for the pass 7 months now, She advised I give it a try so I mailed him and explain all about my financial situation to him, he therefore took me through the loan process and gave me a loan of $390,000.00 at a very low interest rate of 2% and today I am a proud business owner and can now take good care of my kids, If you must contact any firm to get any amount of loan you need with a low interest rate of 2% and better repayment schedule, please contact EDWARD JONES FINANCE email:- {Jonesloanfinance@yahoo.com} OR Text +1(307) 241-3712

Carson Grant said...

DO YOU NEED A LOAN TO START A BEFITTING NEW YEAR!!!!!!

Are you a business man or woman? Are you in any financial stress? Or do you
need money to start your own business?

Do you have a low credit score, and you will find it difficult to get loans
from local banks and other financial institutions? solution to your
financial problem is Dr. Carson Grant The Terms and Conditions are very simple
and considerate.You will never regret any thing in this loan transaction because i will
make you smile through out this transaction, because you where not born to be a loser

Email (carsongrantloanhome@gmail.com)

Our services include the following:

* Personal Loans
* Debt consolidation loans
* Possibility
* Business Loans
* Education Loans
* Mortgage
*Refinancing Loans
* Home Loans
*Secure Loans
*Unsecured Loans

We offer loans at 2% interest rate

We offer loans to people in need of financial assistant with a low interest
rate of 2%. In order to get a loan with this company, you can tell the exact amount of
loan you need and the time in which you can pay back the loan.

NOTE: You are required to email us on:(carsongrantloanhome@gmail.com)

Unknown said...

DO YOU NEED A LOAN TO START A BEFITTING NEW YEAR!!!!!!

Do you seek funds to pay off credits and debts? Do you find yourself in a bit of trouble with unpaid bills and don’t know which way to go or where to turn? What about finding a reputable Debt Consolidation firm that can assist you in reducing monthly installment so that you will have affordable repayment options as well as room to breathe when it comes to the end of the month and bills need to get paid? Adam Fred Loan Company is the answer. Email (Adamfredloanfirm@outlook.com)

**Are you financially squeezed?
**Do you seek funds to pay off credits and debts?
**Do you seek finance to set up your own business?
**Are you in need of private or business loans for various purposes?
**Do you seek loans to carry out large projects?

We offer the following types of loans

*Debt Consolidation Loans *Business Loans *Personal Loans *Home Loans *Car Finance *Commercial Loans *Investments Loans *Debts Consolidation *Business Planning *Commercial Development Finance *Properties Mortgages *Bad credit loans *commercial loans *Start-up- working capital loans *Construction loans *Car loans, *Hotel loans*Student loans

We give you loan with a low interest rate of 2% and loan duration of 1 to 30 years to pay back the loan (secure and unsecured). Do not keep your financial problems to yourself in order for you not to be debt master or financial stress up, which is why you must contact us quickly for a solution to your financial problems. It will be a great joy to us when you are financially stable. Email (Adamfredloanfirm@yahoo.com) or Text or call us on +15017229938 OR +18144768385
Reply