Why the firing of the IGP has more to do with Kampala-Kigali
relations than crime in Uganda
Finally President Yoweri Museveni has fired the Inspector
General of Police, Kale Kayihura. It was a sad ending for a man who more than
anyone else has fought the hardest to defend Museveni’s job.
It must be painful for Kayihura because he was not even
given an alternative appointment as minister or ambassador or even the token
one of “senior presidential advisor” that the president gives to many people he
fires. In leaving him jobless, Museveni has not disguised his extreme
displeasure with Kayihura.
Kayihura has been the most hated person by Uganda’s
opposition because he was extremely effective at blocking and disrupting their
political mobilisation. While effectiveness made him very powerful, it also
attracted considerable envy among some in government, especially in sister
security agencies. These became determined to bring him down.
There thus emerged a convergence of different but compatible
interests between certain powerful forces in government and opposition leaders
and activists. Both wanted him to be fired from his job. Museveni kept Kayihura
for long because he was extremely loyal to him and devoted his tenure
fundamentally to protect Museveni’s power. So why did Museveni drop a man who
sacrificed everything for him?
This is where we need to begin. In recent months, there have
been complaints that crime has run out of control and that the country was on
the verge of falling apart. These alarmist reports and analyses were not driven
by crime but politics. Many Ugandan journalists became prey to a campaign
against Kayihura by his rivals inside government and his enemies in the
opposition who had a vested interest in exaggerating the problem.
Indeed Kayihura’s enemies could have been the ones behind
recent crimes around the country including the kidnapping and murder of Suzan
Magara. They could have designed this strategy in order to taint Kayihura and
police and therefore create a justification for his removal.However, Uganda,
like any other country, is going through a short spell of crime (if this,
itself, can be proved statistically) that given time police would bring under
control.
However, the opposition, journalists and social media
activists who joined the “increasing crime” and “partisan police” bandwagon
were mistaken. Kayihura’s departure will not change the fundamentals on crime
but rather buy government a new lease of legitimacy by creating an appearance
that something is being done. And if his removal stops police from being the
political mobilisation arm of the NRM (and this is possible) another security
agency will take over this role.
Museveni did not fire Kayihura because of “increasing
crime.” Indeed, there is no scientific evidence of this. It is true perception
and fear of crime has gone up. But this does not necessarily mean crime itself
has increased. Studies from the USA show that as crime fell in the 1990s, the
perception of increasing crime grew as a result of media exaggerations. The
same may be the case for Uganda. For example, compared to the crime situation
in the 1990s and early to mid-2000s in this country, the recent spate of crime
in Kampala is a mere pinprick.
Therefore it is unlikely that Museveni could have fired
Kayihura because of crime. Rather the allegations of increasing crime, backed
by public perception and anger provided the president the excuse to remove him.
The primary reason for firing Kayihura seems to be the shifting geopolitical
position of Uganda in her relationship with Rwanda.
When the feud between Kampala and Kigali began, Kayihura
confided in friends that when Uganda and Rwanda fight, he pays the price. Being
an ethnic Munyarwanda, the Ugandan side accuse him of being a mole while the
Rwandan side see him as a traitor. A reliable source told me that Museveni was
“convinced” by other intelligence organisations that Kayihura allowed Rwanda to
use Uganda Police to conduct their operations inside this country. In exchange,
it was alleged that Rwanda was helping him use police to build a political base
for his presidential ambitions.
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