MWENDA: Why we should be suspicious of America’s attempts to
insert itself in our national politics
THE LAST WORD | ANDREW M. MWENDA | Why did the United
States sanction Uganda’s former Inspector General of Police, Gen. Kale
Kayihura, on allegations of violation of human rights, corruption and smuggling
without providing the evidence for the allegations? Why after he has left
office and two years after its own Department of Justice awarded him a medal
for excellence in fighting terrorism? Why is the indictment coming one and a
half years to the beginning of the 2021 presidential election campaigns?
As I wrote in this column last week, the Uganda Human Rights
Commission and the Parliamentary Committee on Human Rights both visited
Nalufenya (the alleged place of torture in the American indictment) and
interacted with the prisoners. Both concluded that the claims of torture were
not founded. Why did the U.S. Department of State disregard the findings of
Uganda’s institutions? Given that the UHRC has issued many reports detailing
torture in Uganda and even made government to pay hefty compensations to
torture victims, the USA should have more confidence in our institutions.
More critically, why does America seek to enforce norms that
it does not practice at home, even though it claims they are its own values?
The American police are notorious for killing innocent African American males.
Indeed every 28 hours a black man is shot dead by police in America for no
reason but the colour of their skin. Doesn’t charity begin at home? Why does
America seek to enforce international laws it has refused to be subject to
under international treaties like the Rome Statute that created the ICC?
Last week I dealt with the substance of these claims: first
that Kayihura was a very honest public servant who did not use his official
position to enrich himself. Second that while security forces routinely
torture, Kayihura made efforts to put checks in place. Third, that America has
been complicit in torture. This column and the article following it on pages
16-17 seek to address America’s motivations.
The sanctions against Kayihura are not actually aimed at
him. Americans want to influence the 2021 elections. They sense fatigue about
President Yoweri Museveni and a wave in favour of Kyadondo East legislator,
Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine, whom they have adopted as their Trojan horse.
He is a catholic and a Muganda. Americans know Ugandans, like most Americans,
vote largely based on identity: ethnic and religion. Bobi Wine may add a
significant share of demographic votes because he is young, fresh and a
celebrity. He has a good intuitive feeling of the frustrations of many ordinary
young Ugandans.
Of course we must ask why Americans would support a novice
like Bobi Wine against Museveni. Our president has been their kingpin in this
region. He has promoted free market policies of liberalisation and
privatisation that have stifled the growth of and/or displaced local capital to
the advantage of multinational capital. He has been central in promoting
America’s security interests in this region and fighting her enemies (for many
years the government in Khartoum and over the last decade the “terrorists” in
Somalia).
While Museveni remains an important instrument in the
security orchestra of this region, things have changed significantly in
Washington DC. President Donald Trump is not interested in Africa. He has not
even appointed an Assistant Secretary of State for African affairs. Africa
policy has been left to low-level diplomats at the State Department, with
little or no input from the Pentagon and the National Security Council. The
diplomats at State are naïve and idealistic liberal imperialists of the human
rights variety. They are schemers who lack the realism of people at the
Pentagon and NSC who understand the complexity of geopolitics.
Back to elections and what I think are America’s
calculations: Museveni performs better when there is low voter turnout. Voter
turnout would be low if people feel their votes do not count because Museveni
will steal them. For many years, Museveni had the most credible person for this
message of hopelessness – Kizza Besigye. He actively told Ugandans that he won
all the last four presidential elections but Museveni cheated him. This
actually sucked energy, motivation and enthusiasm out of the electoral process.
Thus while subjectively a strong critique of the president, Besigye has
objectively been Museveni’s strategic ally.
Bobi Wine is different. He calls on Ugandans to register and
vote and gives them hope of success. His youthful idealism gives him strong
appeal, his emptiness in ideas and policies notwithstanding. His populist
rhetoric endears him to masses of frustrated youths who feel ignored by
Museveni. He is therefore likely to increase voter turnout. Having adopted him
as their Trojan horse, America’s liberal imperialists fear that in the face of
a strong wave in Bobi Wine’s favour, Museveni might keep him off the ballot or
unleash such violence on a scale that can make people opt out of voting.
I suspect Americans calculate that they can pressure
Museveni to accept Bobi Wine on the ballot. This leaves the President with the
second option – violence. The sanctions against Kayihura are meant to send a
signal to other officers in security about the evil that would be visited upon
those who use their positions to crack down violently. They calculate, and I
think naively and wrongly, that in the high stakes game of power politics such
threats can work. They forget that there are many officials who prefer power
and the privileges that come with it, to visiting America.
The tragedy is the response of Ugandan elites in the
opposition, “civil society”, the mass media and academia. They celebrate this
as a victory, unable to see that foreign intrusions into our politics are
unlikely to resolve our internal political problems but rather accentuate them.
I personally have many frustrations with Museveni’s government: its corruption
and incompetence, its lack of a vision for the country, its prostitution to the
interests of multinational capital, its fatigue and inertia and the pettiness
of its politics.
Yet in spite of these frustrations, I am not willing to
support any local or foreign force seeking change. Whoever wants to remove
Museveni must demonstrate that they share my values, understand our national
interest, and can balance all this against local, regional and global interests
to secure the best for our people. Yet for some Ugandans any change from
Museveni is welcome. This addresses an emotion, not policy. The Americans don’t
care about the consequence of their adventures. They supported the Misrata
Brigade to remove Muammar Gadaffi and see where Libya is today!
****
amwenda@independent.co.ug
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