What Kampala needs to think about regarding our latest military adventure into the DRC
THE LAST WORD | ANDREW M. MWENDA | Uganda has returned to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for military operations. Only this time we have some developmental agenda as well – to build some roads and electricity transmission lines. The roads will be important for giving our manufacturers access to the large Congolese market and, if built, will give a serious kick to our manufacturing sector. And that is if we develop a policy on how to support local manufacturers gain a foothold in that vast country. The transmission lines will allow Uganda to export excess electricity to DRC.
That is where the good news ends – on hopes. I am very
skeptical about Uganda’s military adventures in Congo. They always lead to
tears – because of the law of unintended consequences.
Our first military involvement in Congo was in 1965 and the
harvest provided a foundation for political disaster. It led to the Gold
Allegations motion in parliament, the overthrow of the independence
constitution, abolition of kingdoms and laid the foundation for Idi Amin’s coup
of 1971.
Our second military adventure in Congo was 1998 and it led
to a war with our hitherto friends – Zimbabwe, Namibia and Angola. Then in 1999
and in 2000, our Congolese adventure led to us to three ugly battles, this time
with our erstwhile ally, Rwanda in Kisangani. The wounds have not healed.
This time Uganda has gone into Congo at the request of the
government in Kinshasa. However, over the last seven months when this operation
was being planned, Kinshasa has been flip-flopping and therefore proved an unreliable
partner.
Secondly, ADF is not the only rebel group in DR Congo.
Eastern Congo is a mess. There could be over 200 rebel groups in Eastern DRC,
and over 40 in Ituri province alone, where we have deployed. Then there are
conflicts between and among the different ethnic groups in the region: the
Baleega fighting the Bahuma, the Lendu killing the Bagegere etc. It will be
very hard for Uganda to avoid getting sucked into these local conflicts. I have
talked to the different leaders; political and traditional. All want UPDF to
protect them from ADF and other hostile ethnic neighbours or rebel groups. But
its more complicated.
Eastern DRC is over 1,900km from Kinshasa. Elites in the
Congolese capital are detached from the struggles of the people in this region.
So, they grandstand and pontificate before international cameras over issues of
sovereignty. They do this with little or no regard to the actual conditions
obtaining on the ground in the east and the challenges of securing a stable
political order that this entails. Kinshasa does not provide even the most
basic public services in the east – like protecting the lives and property of
its citizens. And there are no communication infrastructures between the
capital and these provinces – be they roads, railways or functioning airports.
So, the leadership in Kinshasa is cut off from the East by lack of emotional
connection, ethnic affinity and physical access.
Then enter our “international partners” – Western
governments, their associated human rights groups, moral posturing and
hypocrisy to spice the soup. To secure a political order in that region
requires the employment of carrots and sticks, bribes and force. How these
tools are used is specific to circumstances and best handled by those closest
to the action. Where force is used, miscalculations, miscommunications,
misunderstandings and mistakes will be hard to avoid. So collateral damage will
be inevitable, providing considerable grist to the human rights mujahedin mill.
Small and big mistakes by the UPDF on civilian lives will be amplified. News
organisations and their journalists hungry for the next tragedy to prove their
prejudices about Africa will join the forces of condemnation.
Then there is Rwanda. Kigali believes that Kampala is
plotting regime change there. Put yourself in their shoes: the entry of UPDF
into DRC and the associated construction of roads, especially from Bunagana to
Goma, will be seen as an attempt to out-flank them. Will they sit idly trusting
in our “good intentions?” I do not think so. What will Kigali do? This will
have powerful implications on the UPDF mission in DRC. I have argued to
exhaustion that whatever our feelings and attitudes towards President Paul
Kagame and his government, we need cooperation not confrontation. This calls
for diplomatic reproachment. Yet Kampala believes, or wants to believe, that
Kigali is of little or no consequence. I disagree.
Finally, there is the curse of Congolese riches – gold,
coltan, cobalt, copper, diamonds, timber, etc. The longer the UPDF mission
stays in Congo, the harder it will be for its officers to avoid getting
entangled in the trade in these rich resources. There are multinational firms
mining and trading in these minerals. Then there are local Congolese dealers
and wheelers who make a fortune out of them. Finally, there is the
government in Kinshasa and its local auxiliaries in the region who want a piece
of the pie. There are inevitable conflicts between all these actors all of whom
will seek UPDF support. It will be impossible for UPDF to avoid getting sucked
into these conflicts, as an arbiter and later even to take sides.
The incentive of each of these actors will be to win UPDF
officers to their side. The players will be keen to achieve this by exchange of
material favours i.e., bribery. UPDF officers are not angels and it will not
take long before they notice the opportunities before them to make money.
Perhaps UPDF is entering Congo with a clear goal of
degrading the capacity of ADF to pose a threat to Uganda and Congolese. But
strategy requires looking at the different challenges and obstacles that may
thwart the mission. The challenges I have raised are among those that could
define the mission.
If UPDF is to achieve even the most minimum objectives – to
degrade, disorganise and disrupt ADF – then it must define the time, say six
months, and get out of that country before it gets entangled into Congo’s
conflicts and be corrupted by its riches.
Yet the mission cannot end before the completion of
infrastructure development – the roads and powerlines. But these may take many
years – six or more. All this is happening at a time when President Museveni is
aging, yet he has personalised most of the decision making. The UN has been in
Congo with troops for decades and achieved little or nothing. Uganda has been
there with little success. That history should be a lesson for us to be
skeptical, not exuberant.
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amwenda@independent.co.ug
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