How Uganda’s politics cannot create a government that delivers public goods and services efficiently
Last week, I proposed the need to rethink the role of the state to
fix our education system. I argued that we should separate the financing
of education from its provision. The state should retain a role in
financing and wherever possible outsource provision to the private
sector. I proposed that we do this by giving vouchers to poor parents to
send their kids to good private schools.
There were many and legitimate criticisms to my proposals and I
admired the insights offered. But there were no creative
recommendations. The only suggestion was that the state should pull up
its performance socks and eliminate corruption and incompetence. This is
too banal. A better suggestion would have been to remove the current
government in the hope that a new one may improve things. Yet I think
the problems of our public sector have more to do with our politics than
with President Yoweri Museveni personally and his NRM party
organisationally. Many may suggest that I am creating an excuse for our
president. But I think that finding a villain to blame for our problems
may not be completely wrong but it is overly simplistic. In any case,
what if regime change doesn’t happen?
Regime change is good and Uganda needs it. But that is not what is
most likely going fix our education system and other problems that
bedevil our public sector. Let us examine the specific reality of
Uganda’s politics. To build a successful electoral coalition, political
parties win over powerful elites from our different ethnic and religious
groups. So Abdul Katuntu and Salam Musumba deliver Busoga to FDC while
Hillary Onek and Jacob Oulanyah deliver Acholi to the NRM. So these
elites act as the bridge between the party and their co-ethnics! The
exchange relationship in this bargain is actually a trade in private
goods, not promises of public policy. How?
These powerful ethnic and religious elites are rewarded with
lucrative ministerial positions in expectation that they will make for
themselves a good fortune (often through corruption) and use their
influence to direct public resources (often as personal favours to
individuals whose support they desire). This is not to say that they
ignore public policy completely. Rather it is to underline the fact that
public policy begins to serve a secondary function. And this behavior
is perfectly rational. If a president or political party can win a large
share of the ethnic block-vote of the Bakiga by appointing a few of its
notables to its cabinet, that is a much more cost efficient and
effective strategy than building a functioning healthcare or education
system in Kigezi.
Many people assume that a democratic system that allows regular
change of government leads to improvements in the ability of the state
to deliver public goods and services. My faith in this belief was lost
when I began studying India, a democracy for the last seventy years.
With its free press, vibrant civil society and regular changes of
government, India has witnessed consistent decline in the ability of the
state to serve the ordinary citizen.
I have just finished reading Simon Denyer’s book, Rogue Elephant, a
powerful tale of deeply entrenched corruption and incompetence in
India’s public sector. Denyer shows how the more corrupt a politician
the more heroic they are in their local community. I have read similar
studies on Zambia, Kenya, Senegal, Malawi and Ghana where governments
change hands from ruling to opposition parties. This is because
political power in such countries is captured by elites who use their
identity to secure the following of their co-ethnics. Regular change of
government may constitute alternation of different elite factions in
power, but not change in governance.
This is why, in making policy, we need to appreciate Uganda’s very
specific political economy. The state of Uganda has built effective
capacities for budget allocation to priority sectors, which I call
“allocative efficiency.” Whenever a sector is prioritised, the
government has proven able to allocate funds to it. For example, the
budget for education has grown from Shs243 billion in 1997 to Shs1.6
trillion today, health from Shs57 billion to Shs1.3 billion and roads
from Shs197 million to Shs1.8 billion over the same period. But many
would agree that the results from this infusion of money into these
sectors are not commensurate with the funds spent. This means the state
of Uganda lacks implementation efficiency and effectiveness.
I hold the view that, to improve a system, one needs to leverage its
strength more than seek to fix its weaknesses. Therefore it is more
productive to try and leverage the government’s allocative efficiency
than try to fix its implementation weaknesses. Vouchers are an
allocative function. Running schools an implementation one. Therefore
vouchers may offer a better solution to education especially in urban
areas where private schools dominate. In any case the majority of
parents especially in urban areas are already using private schools
leaving a dysfunctional public education to the poor. With vouchers, the
government will not be reforming the education system but accepting the
choice better off parents have made.
My belief in privatisation and liberalisation is not ideological but
pragmatic. In Rwanda where the state has proven its discipline and where
the public sector functions even better than the private sector, I
always argue for state-centered policies. In Uganda, I argue the reverse
recognising that our state and its politics work best through the
private sector. See how the privatisation of electricity generation and
distribution has revolutionalized the electricity market and attracted
investments in the energy sector. Look at how the banking and
telecommunications sectors that were liberated from state control have
led to innovations that are transforming our country. Of course the
private sector is not perfect and neither does it answer all Uganda’s
problems. But in education it offers a better alternative.
I admit the voucher system has many flaws as critics so eloquently showed in the stimulating debate on The Independent website (www.independent.co.ug).
But they are also the most pragmatic solution in our circumstances. We
shall not find a perfect solution. Each innovation we seek will have its
shortcomings. We need reform not because it promises perfect or an end
to all our education ills but because it will deliver an improved system
of delivering a good education to the kids of the poor.
Sunday, April 5, 2015
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