How to help distressed companies without removing the risk
from lenders and borrowers
On March 31 2016, the total value of all loans in Uganda’s
commercial banking industry was Shs21.7 trillion of which Shs528 billion were
non-performing loans (or “bad loans”) i.e. 2.64% of the total. Under the
effective oversight of Bank of Uganda, especially its director for supervision;
Justine Bagyenda (known in the industry as Uganda’s Iron Lady), non-performing
loans have averaged 1.7% over the last 10 years. Although there was
deterioration, it was a far cry from the 17% non-performing loans in 1996.
However, in just three months, nonperforming loans jumped
three-fold to Shs1.8 trillion by June 30, 2016 representing 8.4% of total
loans, an unheard of thing in nearly 20 years. What has caused this sudden
deterioration?
It certainly cannot be bad borrowers and reckless lenders
but something troubling about our economy generally. It is thus justified to
fear the situation could worsen with bad loans reaching Shs7.0 trillion (30% of
total loans) by December. This fear can be contested but for policy makers it
is always safe to plan for the worst even when hoping for the best.
Most commentators have denounced the proposed bailout as a scheme to line the pockets of incompetent businesspersons, reckless banks, and “regime cronies”. But let us look at the facts for some perspective.
Of the Shs528 billion in non-performing loans, Shs126
billion (24%) is a result of government not paying domestic arrears to its
suppliers. Diversion of funds to speculative businesses is only Shs2.6 billion
(0.49%). See Table 1. Almost 30% of these loans went to building and
construction (Shs155 billion), 29% to agriculture (Shs151 billion), 24% to
trade and commerce (Shs127 billion) while only 1.4% (Shs7.4 billion) went to
personal household stuff. See table 3.
So Uganda is caught in a Catch-22 situation. If it
intervenes to help distressed companies or over-leveraged banks, it will create
the problem of moral hazard. For example, out of Shs21.7 trillion in loans,
only Shs1.8 trillion is non-performing. If the problem is system-wide, how come
Shs19.9 trillion of loans are still performing?
But the threefold growth in bad loans since April means that
it is highly likely many good loans could go bad. Yet helping distressed
companies means rewarding failure and penalising those servicing their loans.
And in helping the 8.4% who are distressed, you could be encouraging many in
the 91.6% who are doing well to become lax and default in anticipation of a similar
bailout.
Moral hazard is a core belief among free market ideologues
and a real risk in such government interventions. Moralists seeking social
equity would also reject any bailout. But ideological dogmatism and moral
outrage are rarely a basis for sound public policy.
I was re-watching a documentary on the 2008 financial crash
in America. Secretary to the Treasury, Hank Paulsen, made the same ideological
mistake in regard to Leman Brothers, a US investment bank, and refused to bail
it out with only about $50 billion and let it go bankrupt. But this caused
shock on the stock market leading to the near collapse of the rest of the
banking sector.
Eventually, the US government had to fork out $700billion to
bailout banks infected by Leman’s collapse and $800 billion as a stimulus
package to recover from the ensuing recession.
If Uganda has to intervene to help distressed companies, it
must be driven by the desire to avoid contagion. The failure of some of the
distressed companies can lead to the failure of banks with worse consequences
than the costs of a bailout.
Secondly, an economy is a circular flow of income: one
person’s expenditure is another person’s income. Distressed companies must have
suppliers who depend on them for business. If they go under, this may impact
the ability of their suppliers to service their own loans as well.
In Uganda’s case, it may be advisable to work with the
central bank to relax prudential rules, based on a government guarantee. The
aim would be to help commercial banks and their customers to restructure loans
in a more comprehensive way than is right now allowed by the Financial
Institutions Act. The loan maturity period could be lengthened and interest
costs reduced. This will keep commercial banks’ balance sheets healthy without
taking away the responsibility and pressure on them to collect the debt and the
risk of failing to do so.
Companies that are facing a short-term liquidity squeeze due
to factors such as conflict in South Sudan, delayed payment from government,
price volatility, customers who have failed to pay, low sales, termination of
business contracts, breakdown of key equipment, fraud and poor management can
restructure, improve themselves and pay back. Those that are uncompetitive or
undisciplined will go under. That is why government should not cherry pick whom
to help and whom not to. Any government committee mandated to set criteria for
a bailout will become a theatre of influence peddling and corruption leading to
acrimony and political contestation.
The problem facing banks right now, as stated by Uganda’s
leading tycoon and owner of Crane Bank, Sudir Ruparelia, is that half of
Kampala is on sale. If banks offload all collateral on the market, there will
be a collapse of the real estate market. This is in large part because those in
the best position to buy real estate are also the ones who are distressed.
Those that are not distressed are still hedging their bets and are unlikely to
put their money into brick and motor given the prevailing economic uncertainty.
I agree real estate prices in (especially) Kampala have been
overpriced and there is need to let them come down to reflect actual
fundamentals of the economy.
But it would be disastrous to let the housing market
collapse totally. This could easily infect practically everyone because real
estate is the main collateral banks use to lend. Its collapse will force banks
to revalue their collateral and ask borrowers to find more security or recall
the loans, a factor that will cause many more loans to go bad.
Relaxing a strict enforcement of prudential rules by the
central bank means that government will not spend any taxpayer money on the
bailout. It also means that neither the lenders nor the borrowers have been let
off the hook – they will only have been given a short (one to two years)
breather. But it has potential to help healthy companies restructure and
survive while the weak ones collapse and go out of business. It will also help
the central bank dissuade commercial banks from their exaggerated interest
rates. The ball is in the central bank’s court.
***
amwenda@independent.co.ug
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